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A recent survey shows incumbent Congressman Gabe Vasquez with a nine-point lead over his Republican challenger, Yvette Herrell.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll surveyed about 1,000 New Mexicans from all over the state and reported 9 percent of respondents were undecided as of Aug. 23. This set the stage for heavy campaigning heading into the final two months of the 2024 election season.
Numerous media outlets have named New Mexico’s CD2 among the tightest in the country as the two major parties battle to control the House of Representatives. Republicans have an eight-person majority in the House going into an election that both parties have declared one of the most consequential in recent history.
New Mexico’s southern district will play a role in that history.
The same poll showed that New Mexico’s statewide voters favored incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich (40 percent) for reelection to the U.S. Senate over Republican challenger Nella Domenici (37 percent).
The data was similar for Democratic House incumbents Melanie Stansbury, who leads her opponent by about 12 percent, and Teresa Leger Fernández, who leads her opponent by about 9 percent.
Given those results, it shouldn’t be surprising that respondents also held a mostly favorable view of Democrat Kamala Harris going into the presidential election. The poll projected that Harris would win New Mexico if the election were tomorrow.
The poll said 54 percent of respondents supported Harris, while 46 percent supported Donald Trump.
The poll also showed Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s support in New Mexico had fallen compared to last year. Public Policy Polling reported that Lujan Grisham boasted a 47 percent approval rating in 2023.
But this year’s Emerson College/The Hill poll showed that Lujan Grisham’s approval rating had fallen to about 41 percent, with 48 percent in disapproval and about 11 percent either neutral or with no opinion.
Lujan Grisham took a tougher stance on crime and public safety this year, receiving criticism from state progressives and civil rights organizations and members of her own party.
On the topic of crime, the poll also asked the respondents if they felt safer compared to five years ago. About 53 percent said they felt less secure, 14 percent said they felt safer and 32 percent said they felt no different.
Still, crime was not the top issue for the respondents. The economy was by far the most important issue, followed by crime, immigration, education and healthcare.
